As a Research Analyst for Decision Innovation Solutions, Michelle is responsible for analyzing economic, agricultural, business, financial and geographic data to assist clients in making better strategic business decisions.Michelle partners with clients to analyze both current and proposed policy, assess implications for a variety of industries, as well as conducting economic contribution studies to demonstrate the impact of a business or industry on the economy. Additionally, Michelle oversees the marketing and social media activities for DIS.An Iowa native, Michelle graduated from Iowa State University with a BS degree in Finance and a minor in Agricultural Business. Prior to joining the Decision Innovation Solutions team, Michelle gained a broad range of valuable work experience with the Council of Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST), as well as through internships at the Wallace Centers of Iowa and Nationwide Insurance in its Agribusiness department.Since working for DIS, Michelle continued her education by completing the Master of Agribusiness Program at Kansas State University. Her final thesis project on farm management implications of uncertainty in days suitable for fieldwork in corn production can be found here.
2018 ARC and PLC payments were issued in early October. Very few Iowa counties received any ARC-CO payments again this year. Final 2018/19 MYA prices were $3.61 for corn and $8.48 for soybeans, which resulted in a final 2018 PLC payment rate of $0.09 for corn but $0 for soybeans.
According to the October 28th USDA Crop Progress report, Iowa still only had 26% of corn harvested and 66% of soybeans, which are both well behind the 5-year averages of 53% and 80%, respectively. Last year was an exceptionally wet fall with many rainfall records in September and October across Iowa, but this year has been another extremely wet fall which is causing harvest delays.
Spring weather conditions often allow only a small window with ideal planting conditions, but when that window is open, Iowa farmers respond.
Iowa fertilizer prices are down significantly from 2012, however fertilizer prices have been on the rise since late 2017. In 2012, urea prices were near $800/ton, but have since declined to $366/ton as of November 2018. Liquid nitrogen 32% has averaged about $344/ton from 2012-2018, but is currently $258/ton.
We are now a little over halfway through October and Iowa corn harvest progress is only at 17% and soybean harvest progress is 19% complete, which are both behind the 5-year averages of 24% and 51%, respectively. Many are wondering, how does this fall rainfall compare to other years?
2017 ARC-CO payments were issued by USDA's Farm Service Agency on October 4, 2018. As shown on the maps below, Iowa counties received final payment rates ranging from $6.48 to $64.39 per acre for corn and $0.42 to $49.96 per acre for soybeans.
In Iowa, the two largest weeks for harvest progress were in 1993 and 2013, when 30% of Iowa's corn crop was harvested in one week. Since 1990, every year has had a week where at least 15% of the Iowa corn crop was harvested, and 23 out of those 28 years have had a week with 20% or more harvested in one week's worth of time.
According to the July 30th USDA/NASS Iowa Crop Progress & Condition report, the Iowa corn crop is rated 78% Good/Excellent, 16% Fair, and 6% Poor/Very Poor. 96% of the Iowa corn crop is currently silking, and 31% has hit the dough stage.
From 2001-2017, Iowa averaged about eight Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings per year. In 2017, that number rose to a record high during this time frame of 18 filed. As you can see below, the U.S. and Iowa trends in Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings follow a very similar pattern, with both seeing spikes around 2003 and 2010. 2013 and 2014 bankruptcies were lower for both the U.S. and Iowa, however both have seen much higher bankruptcy filing numbers the past three years likely due to declining cash recei
Crop conditions according to the June 4th USDA/NASS Crop Progress report.
The 2018 average cash rental rates for corn and soybean acres ranged from $126/acre in Clarke County to $290 in Grundy County according to the ISU Cash Rental Rates Survey.
With a very cold wet spring 2018 corn and osybean planting has experienced some delays. However, if you give farmers a small window of opportunity between the cold wet days they can get a lot done in a short period of time. See how this has played out in the past.
Nitrogen fertilizer is an important input in Iowa, the leading state in corn production. Due to the positive correlation ammonia has with corn and natural gas prices, many question whether the decline in ammonia prices is enough to reflect the lower corn prices and natural gas prices.
According to the USDA/NASS Acreage Report, 93% of corn acres and 94% of soybean acres in Iowa were planted with a GE (genetically engineered) variety in 2017.
2016 ARC-CO payments have been issued by the FSA. As shown on the map, counties in Iowa will receive a gross payment amount ranging from $0 to $85 for corn acres, and $0 to $33 for soybean acres.
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