Corn yields in the U.S. have been trending upward since the 1930s. As shown in Figure 1, U.S. average corn yields have risen from less than 40 bushels per acre in 1950 to more than 179 bushels per acre in 2024. The rate of increase over that 75-year period has been 1.92 bushels per acre per year.
In this analysis, I also have broken out yield trends by geographic areas of the U.S., namely, Midwest, Northeast, South, and West regions. Corn yields have increased in every region of the U.S. but since 1950 have increased at different rates in each region. In the Midwest, corn yields have increased at the rate of 1.86 bushels per year since 1950 (Figure 2). In the Northeast, corn yields have increased by 1.51 bushels per acre per year since 1950 (Figure 3). In the southern states, corn yields have increased by 1.96 bushels per acre per year since 1950 (Figure 4). And in the West, corn yields have increased by 2.16 bushels per acre per year since 1950 (Figure 5).
One wonders though, what of the future. Where might corn yields be in 2050 if the trend from 1950 to 2024 prevails for the next 25 or so years. To determine this, the U.S. and regional trends were projected forward to 2050. Figure 6 shows the Midwest yield extended forward to 2025 which results in a yield in 2050 of 224 bushels per acre. For Northeast corn, the yield in 2050 would be 192 bushels per acre (Figure 7). For the South the yield in 2050 would be 209 bushels per acre (Figure 8). In the West the yield in 2050 would be 257 bushels per acre (Figure 9). And for the U.S. the yield in 2050 would be 232 bushels per acre (Figure 10).
Assuming we retain similar corn acreage nationally to what the U.S. is planting (96 million acres) and harvesting (87 million acres) now, that would suggest a national corn crop in 2050 of 20.18 billion bushels of corn.
Assuming we will feed 6 – 7 million bushels of corn by then, and export about 3 billion bushels, that leaves 10 billion bushels of corn that will need to find a home in domestic uses like ethanol or sustainable aviation fuel. Currently, we are using about 5.7 billion bushels of corn per year for ethanol. Will low-carbon biofuels be the demand factor that can use another 4.3 billion bushels of corn (an increase of 75% compared to the amount of corn used for biofuels now?
Analysis by David Miller, Consulting Chief Economist, Decision Innovation Solutions.