Weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter data from 2024 through early 2026 points to a clear and sustained tightening in supply (Figure 1). In 2024, weekly slaughter generally ranged between 650,000 and 700,000 head, but that stepped down to roughly 600,000–650,000 in 2025 and has trended closer to 550,000–600,000 so far in 2026. While normal seasonal patterns, such as holiday-related slowdowns, are still present, the entire range of weekly slaughter has shifted lower, indicating that this is not a short-term disruption but a broader structural change in cattle availability.
Between late March 2024 and 2025, total slaughter declined by 7.6%, even as steer and heifer slaughter increased modestly, suggesting that slaughter levels were temporarily supported by cattle already in the pipeline from earlier feedlot placements. However, by 2026 the trend shifts more sharply, total slaughter falls an additional 4.7% from 2025, with notable declines in steers (-10.5%) and heifers (-21.8%).
This shift indicates that the pipeline of market-ready cattle is narrowing rapidly, particularly on the fed cattle side. While dairy slaughter increased slightly in 2026 (6.1%), it was not enough to offset broader declines across other categories. The sharp reduction in heifer slaughter may also signal early stages of herd rebuilding, as fewer heifers are sent to slaughter and more are potentially retained for breeding.
Beef Prices
Retail beef prices from 2024 through early 2026 show a clear upward trend across nearly all major cuts, reflecting tightening cattle supplies working their way through the supply chain (Figure 2). Ground beef prices increased from roughly $5.48 per pound in early 2024 to around $6.85-$6.90 per pound by early 2026, while higher value cuts saw a greater increase. Chuck roast ($9.34), round roast ($8.94), and stew beef ($9.17) prices peaked in late 2025, while sirloin steak climbed to $14.31 in August 2025.
Since March 2025, nearly all cuts have continued to see strong price growth, with most posting double digit percentage increases. Ground beef rose 11.8% to $6.86 per pound, chuck roast increased 9.1% to $8.83 per pound, and round roast climbed 12.2% to $8.47 per pound. Higher value cuts saw even sharper gains, with sirloin steak rising 18.5% to $14.12 per pound and stew beef increasing 10.7% to $8.41 per pound. For consumers, this translates to persistently higher prices at the grocery store, with limited signs of relief in the near future.
U.S. Beef Exports
Monthly U.S. beef export volumes through 2025 and early 2026 show a clear softening trend. Total exports peaked in March 2025 at over 255,761 1,000 lbs. carcass weight, before steadily declining through the summer and early fall, reaching a low of 180,247 1,000 lbs. carcass weight in September (Figure 3). Overall, beef exports have fallen 19.2% from February 2025 to February 2026.
South Korea and Japan are the two largest and most consistent destinations, combining to account for nearly 45% of monthly U.S. beef exports in January and February (Figure 3). U.S. beef exports are down 16.6% to South Korea and 22.6% to Japan. Beef exports to China dropped drastically due to the trade war, decreasing by over 95% since March 2025. This sharp decline has significantly reduced overall export volumes and shifted more reliance onto other key markets.
Despite the recent softening in export volumes, annual export values in 2025 highlight the continued importance of a core group of international markets. According to the USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service, 2025 U.S. beef and beef products exports totaled $9.3 billion, with the top three markets accounting for 57% of exports. South Korea ($2.23 billion), Japan ($1.7 billion), and Mexico ($1.3 billion) were the only markets that produce a billion dollars, reinforcing their role as the foundation of U.S. beef trade.
Beyond the top tier, Canada ($873.6 million) and Taiwan ($667.4 million) represent additional key markets, while China ($497.6 million) and Hong Kong ($479.2 million) round out major Asian destinations.
Overall, the U.S. cattle market is operating in a supply-constrained environment, with lower slaughter volumes supporting higher prices across the supply chain. At the same time, export markets are beginning to reflect these tighter conditions with declining volumes and increased sensitivity due to political influences. How these dynamics evolve will play a critical role in shaping both domestic prices and global competitiveness moving forward