By Alex Robinson, Research Analyst
Iowa State University publishes monthly estimates of cost returns on hogs that provides a general outlook on the margins that many producers are experiencing.
Total returns for farrow-to-finish producers stay positive in our most recent update, with estimates showing that, on average, producers saw a profit of $13.48 per head in April 2025 (Figure 1). Returns decreased by $1.83 from March ($15.31 per head) after increasing by $1.24 the previous month. This report marks 13 straight months of positive returns, the longest streak since a 15 month stretch from January 2017 to March 2018. As seen in Figure 1, this is two straight Aprils with positive returns since reaching a low of -$49.47 in 2023.
Figure 1. Total Returns for Farrow-to-Finish Producers
Total costs have increased for the fourth consecutive month to $169.91 per head in April (Figure 2). Feed costs decreased by 13 cents, nonfeed costs increased by 5 cents, and death loss increased by 40 cents, leading to total costs rising by 33 cents. Revenue dropped by $2.06 to $177.37 per head in April. Revenue is $7.45 higher than total costs, signifying producers turning a profit even before factoring in the manure credit. The selling price dropped by 77 cents from March to April.
Figure 2: Farrow-to-Finish Costs, Revenue, and Selling Price
To predict the returns of farrow-to-finish producers, this forecast uses daily cash grain bids and futures prices of corn and soybean meal to project feed costs, while using a 12-month rolling average to estimate nonfeed costs. This forecast also uses negotiated hog prices instead of formulated hog prices. These assumptions can result in returns having larger swings than what takes place in the actual market.
Estimated returns for farrow-to-finish producers present interesting results. After 13 consecutive months of profit, returns decreased to -$6.50 in May (Figure 3). This loss is largely due to the estimated selling price decreasing to $58.85 in May. Returns recover in June to $21.24 and remain positive through September, reaching a high of $23.64 in August. Estimated returns begin a sharp downward trend in October starting at -$15.35. Returns continue to drop in November to -$17.24 before finishing the year at -$39.63. Throughout the final quarter of 2025, the selling price drops by $12.87 while total costs only drop by 70 cents. The decrease in hog prices exceeding the decrease in total costs leads to returns dropping off as 2025 ends.
Figure 3. Estimated Returns for Farrow-to-Finish in Iowa