Since January 2020, corn prices have ranged between $3 and $8 per bushel. Soybean meal prices have ranged between $280 and $500 per ton. DDGs prices have ranged between $100 to nearly $300 per ton (Figure 1).
Corn, soybean meal, and Dried Distillers Grains (DDGs) compose slightly more than 75% of the total hog feed cost for farrow-finishing hogs based on modeling by Iowa State University Extension1 (Figure 2). This article examines trends in feed costs as well as the impact of corn and soybean meal prices on feed costs for swine farrow-to-finishing operations. The rations for the swine farrow-to-finishing enterprise consist of corn, soybean meal, dry distillers’ grain, and supplements. The total cost of the feed on a per head basis also includes a feed processing charge.
Feed cost also represents a large share of the cost of producing hogs (58% of the value of hog production during the period of January 2020 through July 2026) and as shown in Figure 3, total
feed cost has fluctuated from 40% of the value of a hog to nearly 90% of the value of a hog since January 2020.
But how sensitive are feed costs to changes in the individual components of hog feed? A regression analysis for feed prices and components of hog feed costs for the period of January 2020 through July 2026 shows that for each 1% change in the cost of corn, total hog feed costs
increase by 0.54%; for soybean meal each 1% change in the price of meal changes hog feed costs by 0.22%; and each 1% change in the price of DDGs changes hog feed costs by 0.07%.
Corn price in July 2026 was $4.33 per bushel. In mid-September, using the March 2027 futures as the reference price, corn price in March is projected to be $5.33 per bushel. That is a 23% increase from the July price. Soybean meal in July was $318 per ton and by mid-September the March 2027 futures were at $358 per ton, an increase of 12.6%. Since mid-July, DDGs prices have risen 18.5%. Taken together and using the elasticity estimates above, the increase in corn, soybean meal, and DDGs prices indicate that hog feed prices in March 2027 could be 16.4% higher than they were in July 2026. That would push total feed cost per head to more than $102 per head. If live hogs are worth about $160 per head in March 2027, that would make feed costs about 63% of the value of the hog. This would be similar to the relationship between feed cost and value of hogs seen in late 2021 and in early 2024.