As harvest is now in full swing across much of the Midwest, the spotlight has been on the expected bin-busting corn crop. However, gaining importance and garnering attention is this year’s soybean harvest – one that could be pivotal for U.S. soybeans and farmers.
Rising and persistent input costs and low commodity prices create a tough economic environment for farmers with implications moving through harvest and into next spring’s planting. Add in trade disruptions, and record export and production numbers by Brazil, these factors are shaping a potentially consequential outlook for U.S. soybeans.
At the end of September 2025, the top buyer of U.S. soybeans, China, had essentially no imports of U.S. soybeans. Total soybean exports to China since the beginning of the year have been 6.48 million metric tons (MT) equivalent to 238.3 million bushels. However, June, July, and August were marked with essentially zero exports of U.S. soybeans to China.
As illustrated in Figure 1, soybean exports to China, on a 5-year average basis, have been volatile yet fairly consistent with export numbers we saw in 2024. However, despite the fact that we are still a few months away from closing out the current year, 2025 exports to China are drastically below export numbers from a year ago and the 5-year average.
Figure 1. U.S. Soybean Exports to China by Month
As the trends show, U.S. soybean exports to China are seasonal with limited volumes exported during the summer (i.e., May-August). Exports in October, when U.S. harvest begins, is typically the yearly high in terms of volume. In October 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled nearly 254 million bushels. In 2024, the U.S. exported over 954 million bushels to China according to the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service.
Currently, there is no trade deal in place with China for U.S. soybeans meaning that the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans has no orders in place to purchase any soybeans as we approach the peak export time in the year amid fall harvest. Coupled with low prices, rising input costs, and pending grain storage decisions, farmers face growing uncertainty as harvest progresses.
The September USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report estimated that soybeans stored in all positions totaled 316 million bushels, of which 225 million bushels stored off-farm and 91.5 million bushels stored on-farm. While these levels are down from a year ago, the projected record corn yields and low prices indicate that we could potentially see larger volumes of grain in storage post-harvest.
The United States has, over time, shifted their presence in the global soybean market in terms of exports, following the rise of domestic and value-added use. Domestic crush capacity has increased particularly following the rise in demand for biodiesel. The September USDA WASDE report estimated U.S. soybean production to be 4.3 billion bushels, a similar projection to last year. However, lower exports coupled with higher crush projections highlight the domestic demand for soybeans possibly signaling potential for the U.S. soybean market to take advantage of domestic use and demand where possible.
Over time, particularly throughout the past decade, the share of U.S. soybeans exported to China has fluctuated year-to-year but declined from a steady 28% of total U.S. production in 2014/15 to 19% in 2024/25 (Figure 2). The 2018/19 trade war was marked with 11% of total U.S. soybean production exported to China, the lowest level in the last 10 years. Even though the U.S. has become less reliant on Chinese soybean exports over, Brazilian soybean exports to China have dominated the global market putting major pressure on the U.S. soybean market and it’s unlikely that Brazil is solely able to meet China’s demand.
Figure 2. Share of U.S. Soybean Production Exported to China
The market has not been shy to react to recent news President Trump announcing his intent to confront China about their lack of soybean purchases when the two world leaders meet in a few weeks. As noted by the American Soybean Association, the spread of current soybean futures is another indication that there is not much interest in U.S. soybeans as harvest is in full swings (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Soybean Futures as of October 3rd, 2025
Figure 4. Iowa Statewide Soybean Basis
It is typical for soybean basis to fluctuate throughout the year, with the largest basis occurring during fall harvest and then strengthening into the spring and summer months. As Figure 4 illustrates, soybean basis levels have seen a lot of movement, with the most recent marketing year seeing lower basis levels when compared to the 5-year average. It is possible that soybean demand here in the U.S. could also impact soybean basis amid the current state of global trade. Increased soybean meal demand increasing soybean crush, according to the USDA ERS, could potentially strengthen basis levels as the competition for supply rises to meet domestic demand.
Overall, record low soybean prices paired with high input prices for farmers, and no trade deal reached with China regarding soybeans at the time of writing could have significant implications for U.S. farmers and the entire supply chain. Even with low commodity prices, with little to no soybean exports to China, the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, storing soybeans could potentially be the only option, which can become costly at a time when margins are anticipated to be tight regardless.