Jing Tang, Statistician
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Monthly Energy Review report on August 26th, 2025 and its Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feed Stocks Update Report on August 29th, 2025. In this article, we will conduct a descriptive analysis of pure biodiesel (B100) production and its feedstocks usage.
Biodiesel Production and Five-Year Average
EIA reported a monthly average of 92.5 million gallons of pure biodiesel was produced in January through May 2025, which was 40 million gallons less when compared to the average of these five months in 2024, and more than 200 million gallons less compared to the total production in the same time period. In Figure 1, the red dashed line represents B100 production in 2025. The blue solid line represents B100 production in 2024. The gray bar represents the 5-year average (2020 to 2024) biodiesel production for each month. Biodiesel production in all 12 months in 2024 was about the same as the 5-year average, while the biodiesel production in the first five months in 2025 has a much lower level compared to the 5-year average, which is due to the loss of tax credits for imported biofuels, the uncertainty around blending requirements and negative profit margins for blending biofuels, according to EIA.
Biodiesel Feedstocks Usage Five Year Outlook
Figure 2 shows the monthly usage of vegetable oils, i.e., canola oil (represented by red), corn oil (green) and soybean oil (blue), in biodiesel production from January 2020 to May 2025. Some data records for canola oil are missing because EIA withheld them to avoid disclosure of individual company data. Soybean oil remains the largest oil input for the entire study period, except for the first two months in 2025.
For the five months in 2025, soybean oil inputs to biodiesel production were 3,917.2 million pounds (30.7% of total feedstock inputs), 1,106.0 million pounds soybean oil input less than the same time period in 2024. Canola oil input was 796.3 million pounds to biodiesel production (6.2% of total feedstock inputs), 956.0 million pounds canola oil input less than the same time period in 2024. Corn oil input was 1,848.4 million pounds (14.5% of total feedstock inputs), 197.6 million pounds corn oil input more than the same time period in 2024.
Application of simple linear regression models on vegetable oil inputs across time results in significantly increasing trends for all three vegetable oil inputs over time, as shown in Figure 2. For the last five years, though, soybean oil is still the top feedstock contributor for B100 production even though the percentage of feedstock inputs derived from soybean oil has decreased among all oil inputs, from its high point in 2020 of 65.9% to 46.0% in 2022, 35.0% in 2024, and 30.7% in 2025 so far.
Figure 3 shows the monthly usage of animal fats and recycled feeds, i.e., poultry fat (represented by yellow), tallow (blue), white grease (green, also called choice white grease) and yellow grease (red), in biodiesel production within the same study period. Again, some data records for poultry fat and tallow are missing because EIA withheld them to avoid disclosure of individual company data.
Yellow grease, which includes recycled cooking oil, was the top animal fat and recycled feed input to U.S. biodiesel production before 2025. However, after 2025, it became the second largest animal fat and recycled feed input. In the first five months in 2025, yellow grease usage was 2,258.4 million pounds, 791.25 million pounds less when compared to the same time period in 2024. Yellow grease usage decreased to 17.7% compared to yellow grease inputs in the same time period in 2024.
For the studied period, tallow input, with 3,627.2 million pounds, increased 26.5% compared to the same time period in 2024 (2,867.4 million pounds), and increased 239.2% compared to tallow inputs during the same months of 2023. After 2025, tallow became the dominant animal fat and recycled feed input. Notice that for January and February 2025, tallow input was 710.3 million pounds and 630.3 million pounds, respectively. This was the top input among all vegetable oil, animal fat and recycled feed inputs, even higher than soybean oil, which has been the top input used in biodiesel production for more than a decade.
Inclusion of poultry fat was 72.1 million pounds during the first five months of 2025, down 16.5% from 86.3 million pounds used in the first five months in 2024. Inclusion of white grease was 239.7 million pounds in the first five months in 2025, a decrease of 22.3% from 308.6 million pounds in the first five months in 2024.
Animal fats and recycled feeds usage captured about 48.6% of total feedstock usage in the studied period in 2025. Tallow accounted for 28.4% of that 48.6%, following by yellow grease with 17.7%, white grease with 1.9%, poultry fat with 0.6%, and with “other” input unknown. Animal fat and recycled feedstock usage remained about the same when compared with the first five months of 2024, only decreasing about 1.8%. However, when compared to the first five months in 2023, animal fat and recycled feedstock usage increased by 56.1%.
Tallow and yellow grease inputs have shown increasing trends in biodiesel production. Tallow and yellow grease became the number two and number three fat and oil inputs for biodiesel production, respectively, since 2025. Regression models indicate the same conclusion, tallow input (for both overall period and two stages, Stage 1: January 2020 to July 2023, and Stage 2: August 2023 to May 2025) and yellow grease input have trends which are significantly increasing over the study period shown as the blue equation and red equation respectively in Figure 3.
Since 2025 data is not yet complete, Figure 4 compares data from 2020 to 2024. Animal fat input has seen a significantly increasing trend from 2020 to 2024, from 16.6% of total input to 40.9%. It reached 47.8% of the total input in the first five months in 2025. Among the four animal fats, tallow input increased from 2.6% of total input to 19.1% in 2024, and to 28.4% of total input in the first five months in 2025. On the other hand, soybean oil input was 65.9% of total input in 2020. It dropped to 35.0% in 2024, and to 31.6% of total input in the first five months in 2025. The input share of soybean oil is declining, though the total input of SBO in B100 production is trending up. The inclusion rate of SBO in B100 is down 46.9% from 2020 to 2024. Under a low carbon fuel standard framework, tallow for biodiesel production could achieve more significant greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to plant-based inputs, mainly because they don’t share emissions of upstream activities.
In conclusion, although biodiesel production has experienced a decreasing trend due to policy issues, several of the major inputs of biodiesel production are trending upward reflecting a reordering of fats and oils included in B100 production. Tallow and yellow grease have seen a strong increasing trend, especially tallow, and they may become the leading fat and oil inputs for biodiesel production in the future. Other animal fat inputs, such as poultry fat and white grease have seen a decreasing trend.