USDA's July Forecasts Show Lower 2019/20 Soybean Production, Exports, and Ending Stocks

posted by S. Patricia Batres-Marquez on Tuesday, July 16, 2019

In the latest USDA’s WASDE report posted July 11, 2019, the 2019/20 soybean production forecast was down 305 million bushels to 3.845 billion bushels month-over-month (Figure 1). This forecast reflected lower planted and harvested area indicated in the June 28, 2019 Acreage report and lower expected yields. Soybean planted acres for 2019 was estimated at 80.0 million acres, down 4.6 million acres from last month. This would be the lowest acreage since 2013; however, this estimate might change. As indicated by USDA, with planting progress substantially delayed in many states due to adverse weather, this month USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will collect updated information on 2019 acres planted, and if the newly collected data indicates any changes, NASS will publish updated acreage estimates in the August 12, 2019 Crop Production report. Harvested area was forecast down 4.5 million acres to 79.3 million acres compared with June’s projection. The soybean yield forecast at 48.5 bushels per acre, was down 1 bushel from the last month’s projection. USDA lowered the 2019/20 soybean yield forecast due to delayed planting progress in the main producing states.   

If realized, production would be down 699 million bushels from the 2018/19 estimate (4.544 billion bushels), whereas harvested area would decline by 8.8 million acres from the current marketing year estimate. 

A larger 2018/19 residual resulted in lower 2019/20 beginning stocks at 1.05 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels from June’s projection (see Figure 1).  The higher residual use in the current marketing year was based on the June 28 Grain Stocks report, along with crush and export data up to May 2019.  

With lower expected production and beginning stocks, the projected 2019/20 soybean supply was down 325 million bushels to 4.91 from the previous month’s forecast.  

On the soybean usage side, 2019/20 soybean exports were forecast at 1.875 billion bushels, down 75 million bushels from the previous month, but up 175 million bushels from the unchanged projection for the current marketing year (1.7 million bushels). The lower 2019/20 soybean export projection was based on smaller expected supplies and strong competition from South American exporters, particularly Brazil. The forecast for 2019/20 crush was unchanged from last month at 2.115 billion bushels. Ending stocks for the next marketing year were projected at 795 million, 250 million bushels lower than June.  

The projected 2019/20 season-average price for soybeans was $8.40 per bushel, up 15 cents from last month, but 10 cents below the projected price for 2018/19.    

Figure 1

About The Author

S. Patricia Batres-Marquez

As a Senior Research Analyst for Decision Innovation Solutions, S. Patricia Batres-Marquez is responsible for conducting economic data analysis and modeling to evaluate agricultural policies relevant to clients to make informed decisions. Using her research expertise in the analysis of agricultur ... read more