This month we explore Iowa and U.S. drought conditions, insights from the latest U.S. census, and how our independent view has been used in applications for funding.
This month we introduce our new research analyst, talk about Iowa's Ethanol Goss production margin, the CRP, trends in Iowa's ag machinery industry, and how our dynamic flow analysis methodology is used.
This month we introduce our new intern, talk about Oregon's Clean Fuels Program, corn forecasts, emissions and ag, our work with AgriGrowth, and how our dynamic risk-based modeling is used.
It is hard to believe that I have been a member of the DIS team for nearly four months now! A lot has changed since the beginning of the spring semester when I started my internship, but I am grateful to be able to continue my work and research remotely for the time being.
According to the January 2020 USDA Cattle on Feed Report, the total inventory of U.S. cattle on feed in 1,000+ capacity feedlots was almost 12 million head, up 2% from the previous year.
2018 ARC and PLC payments were issued in early October. Very few Iowa counties received any ARC-CO payments again this year. Final 2018/19 MYA prices were $3.61 for corn and $8.48 for soybeans, which resulted in a final 2018 PLC payment rate of $0.09 for corn but $0 for soybeans.
According to the October 28th USDA Crop Progress report, Iowa still only had 26% of corn harvested and 66% of soybeans, which are both well behind the 5-year averages of 53% and 80%, respectively. Last year was an exceptionally wet fall with many rainfall records in September and October across Iowa, but this year has been another extremely wet fall which is causing harvest delays.
Spring weather conditions often allow only a small window with ideal planting conditions, but when that window is open, Iowa farmers respond.
Iowa fertilizer prices are down significantly from 2012, however fertilizer prices have been on the rise since late 2017. In 2012, urea prices were near $800/ton, but have since declined to $366/ton as of November 2018. Liquid nitrogen 32% has averaged about $344/ton from 2012-2018, but is currently $258/ton.
We are now a little over halfway through October and Iowa corn harvest progress is only at 17% and soybean harvest progress is 19% complete, which are both behind the 5-year averages of 24% and 51%, respectively. Many are wondering, how does this fall rainfall compare to other years?
2017 ARC-CO payments were issued by USDA's Farm Service Agency on October 4, 2018. As shown on the maps below, Iowa counties received final payment rates ranging from $6.48 to $64.39 per acre for corn and $0.42 to $49.96 per acre for soybeans.
In Iowa, the two largest weeks for harvest progress were in 1993 and 2013, when 30% of Iowa's corn crop was harvested in one week. Since 1990, every year has had a week where at least 15% of the Iowa corn crop was harvested, and 23 out of those 28 years have had a week with 20% or more harvested in one week's worth of time.
According to the July 30th USDA/NASS Iowa Crop Progress & Condition report, the Iowa corn crop is rated 78% Good/Excellent, 16% Fair, and 6% Poor/Very Poor. 96% of the Iowa corn crop is currently silking, and 31% has hit the dough stage.
Corn has been grown across Iowa for more than 150 years, more than 30,000 kernels are planted per acre, and state-average corn yields can be close to 200 bushels per acre in a good year and near 300 bushels per acres on high CSR land. Additionally, what used to take days to plant can now be done in minutes
Expectation for losses in the hog industry were estimated to be more than $25 per head by the last quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, in the report from the University of Illinois. Additionally, profit per head in 2017 was, on average, $4 per head, the expectation for 2018 is that number falling to losses of $11 per head, and then further to $14 per head in 2019. With trade deals in flux, and with the export market representing more than 20 percent of US pork production any major cha
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